October 25, 2022 - Energy Academic Group
Managing Fuel Infrastructure Integrity and Uncertainty
Tuesday, October 25, 2022 | 12:00 PM Pacific Time
Michael Rocha, P.E.
Division Director, POL Facilities Engineering SH25
NAVFAC Engineering & Expeditionary Warfare Center
NAVFAC Engineering & Expeditionary Warfare Center
Frank Kern, P.E.
POL Facilities EngineerNAVFAC Engineering & Expeditionary Warfare Center
Abstract
Important business decisions are routinely made based on incomplete or uncertain information. In integrity management, deciding whether a pipe or tank is suitable for fuel service for another inspection interval relies heavily on judgement and integrity management principles. Uncertainty in inspection is a given, and poor reporting occurs often. Unforeseen operational risks can lead to system damage. Despite all these sources of uncertainty, timely decisions must be made.
Uncertainty about the future of infrastructure tends to increase in conjunction with the quest for more data. There is a tendency to trust the allure of technology-driven data. Vendors promise inspections containing tens of millions of data points using ultra-sophisticated stainless steel robotics. Academics pursue schemes to achieve real-time corrosion rate monitoring. Yet, uncertainty in the management of infrastructure increases every year. What appears to be a complementary relationship between an increase in available information and a decrease in uncertainty in reality leads to a paradoxical time sink. More data requires more analysis and time and actually decreases reliability.
Data by itself appears substantive but is meaningless and doesn’t impact uncertainty. It informs nothing about reliability and accuracy, and can be counterintuitive and incorrectly manipulated. In order to be useful, data must be reduced and analyzed.
This lecture will present the background of fuel infrastructure integrity management and how the uncertainty inherent to it is managed. We’ll discuss the process by which data becomes knowledge and how that plays into decision making, and we’ll discuss some differences in terminology regarding accuracy and how that plays into uncertainty. We will cover uncertainty itself, present some ideas on how to formulate an approach to managing it, and finally we’ll cover decision making and pitfalls as they relate to uncertainty.
Uncertainty about the future of infrastructure tends to increase in conjunction with the quest for more data. There is a tendency to trust the allure of technology-driven data. Vendors promise inspections containing tens of millions of data points using ultra-sophisticated stainless steel robotics. Academics pursue schemes to achieve real-time corrosion rate monitoring. Yet, uncertainty in the management of infrastructure increases every year. What appears to be a complementary relationship between an increase in available information and a decrease in uncertainty in reality leads to a paradoxical time sink. More data requires more analysis and time and actually decreases reliability.
Data by itself appears substantive but is meaningless and doesn’t impact uncertainty. It informs nothing about reliability and accuracy, and can be counterintuitive and incorrectly manipulated. In order to be useful, data must be reduced and analyzed.
This lecture will present the background of fuel infrastructure integrity management and how the uncertainty inherent to it is managed. We’ll discuss the process by which data becomes knowledge and how that plays into decision making, and we’ll discuss some differences in terminology regarding accuracy and how that plays into uncertainty. We will cover uncertainty itself, present some ideas on how to formulate an approach to managing it, and finally we’ll cover decision making and pitfalls as they relate to uncertainty.
Biographies
Michael Rocha, P.E.
Michael Rocha is a native of California. He earned a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo in 1991. He began working for the Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) in 1991 at the Naval Energy and Environmental Support Activity (NEESA) in Port Hueneme, CA.
This command evolved into what is now the NAVFAC Engineering and Expeditionary Warfare Center (EXWC). Mr. Rocha is a registered Professional Mechanical Engineer in California and a Certified American Petroleum Institute (API) 570 Piping Inspector.
Mike has worked in the Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants (POL) technical area since 1996 in a variety of roles. He has been a Project Engineer, Project Manager, Piping Inspector, Test Engineer, Program Manager, Branch Head, Product Line Lead and is currently the Director of the EXWC POL Facilities Engineering Division, SH25.
This division has a staff of 32 engineers, project managers, and support staff and collaborates with subject matter experts in EXWC and across NAVFAC in a number of technical areas. SH25 is the seat for the NAVFAC Technical Warrant Holder in POL Facilities Engineering and works with multiple Department of Defense Agencies, NATO, and non-government Technical Societies to develop and maintain engineering and construction criteria for POL infrastructure.
The EXWC POL Division provides Integrity Management services to the Navy POL infrastructure around the world. It specializes in POL tank and pipeline inspections and engineering recommendations to manage risk in POL infrastructure.
Frank Kern, P.E.
Frank is a native of California. He earned a Bachelor of Science in Environmental Resources Engineering from California State University Humboldt in 1999. He began working for the Humboldt County Department of Public Works in 1998. He worked at the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, serving in both the Flood Maintenance and Road Maintenance Divisions. He has worked as a consultant conducting forensic investigation work. He started at Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) in 2008 as a construction manager.
Frank has worked in the Engineering and Expeditionary Warfare Center (EXWC) Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants (POL) technical area since 2013. The EXWC POL Division provides Integrity Management services to the Navy POL infrastructure around the world. We specialize in POL tank and pipeline inspections and integrity assessments to manage risk in POL infrastructure.
He has been a Project Manager, Design Manager, and currently is the POL Facilities Engineer. He was assigned the NAVFAC Technical Warrant Holder for POL Facilities Engineering in 2022. In that role, he is charged with setting technical standards and leading a community of practice.
Frank is a voting member of the API subcommittee on Aboveground Storage Tanks. He is a voting member of the DoD Fuels Discipline Working Group. In those roles Frank is the custodian for Navy fuel facilities design criteria and helps to shape industry standards for tank design and construction.
Frank is a registered Professional Civil Engineer in California, Washington, and Arizona. He is certified by the American Petroleum Institute (API) as a 570 Piping Inspector and as a 653 Tank Inspector. He is certified by the National Association of Corrosion Engineers as a Coating Inspector.
Michael Rocha is a native of California. He earned a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo in 1991. He began working for the Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) in 1991 at the Naval Energy and Environmental Support Activity (NEESA) in Port Hueneme, CA.
This command evolved into what is now the NAVFAC Engineering and Expeditionary Warfare Center (EXWC). Mr. Rocha is a registered Professional Mechanical Engineer in California and a Certified American Petroleum Institute (API) 570 Piping Inspector.
Mike has worked in the Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants (POL) technical area since 1996 in a variety of roles. He has been a Project Engineer, Project Manager, Piping Inspector, Test Engineer, Program Manager, Branch Head, Product Line Lead and is currently the Director of the EXWC POL Facilities Engineering Division, SH25.
This division has a staff of 32 engineers, project managers, and support staff and collaborates with subject matter experts in EXWC and across NAVFAC in a number of technical areas. SH25 is the seat for the NAVFAC Technical Warrant Holder in POL Facilities Engineering and works with multiple Department of Defense Agencies, NATO, and non-government Technical Societies to develop and maintain engineering and construction criteria for POL infrastructure.
The EXWC POL Division provides Integrity Management services to the Navy POL infrastructure around the world. It specializes in POL tank and pipeline inspections and engineering recommendations to manage risk in POL infrastructure.
Frank Kern, P.E.
Frank is a native of California. He earned a Bachelor of Science in Environmental Resources Engineering from California State University Humboldt in 1999. He began working for the Humboldt County Department of Public Works in 1998. He worked at the Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, serving in both the Flood Maintenance and Road Maintenance Divisions. He has worked as a consultant conducting forensic investigation work. He started at Naval Facilities Engineering Command (NAVFAC) in 2008 as a construction manager.
Frank has worked in the Engineering and Expeditionary Warfare Center (EXWC) Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants (POL) technical area since 2013. The EXWC POL Division provides Integrity Management services to the Navy POL infrastructure around the world. We specialize in POL tank and pipeline inspections and integrity assessments to manage risk in POL infrastructure.
He has been a Project Manager, Design Manager, and currently is the POL Facilities Engineer. He was assigned the NAVFAC Technical Warrant Holder for POL Facilities Engineering in 2022. In that role, he is charged with setting technical standards and leading a community of practice.
Frank is a voting member of the API subcommittee on Aboveground Storage Tanks. He is a voting member of the DoD Fuels Discipline Working Group. In those roles Frank is the custodian for Navy fuel facilities design criteria and helps to shape industry standards for tank design and construction.
Frank is a registered Professional Civil Engineer in California, Washington, and Arizona. He is certified by the American Petroleum Institute (API) as a 570 Piping Inspector and as a 653 Tank Inspector. He is certified by the National Association of Corrosion Engineers as a Coating Inspector.
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